2012
Kreyenfeld, M. R., Andersson, G., & Pailhé, A. (2012). Economic uncertainty and family
dynamics in Europe (Introduction to special issue of Demographic Research) (No. WP-2012-
006). Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany.
https://doi.org/10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2012-006
Economic uncertainty has become an increasingly important factor in explanations of declining
fertility and postponed family formation across Europe. Yet the micro-level evidence on this topic
is still limited. This special collection of Demographic Research focuses on the issue of how
economic and employment uncertainties relate to fertility and family dynamics in Europe. Methods
The collection is comprised of studies that explore how various dimensions of employment
uncertainty, such as temporary working contracts and individual and aggregate unemployment, are
related to the fertility and family formation of women and men across Europe. The studies cover
Germany, the UK, France, Russia, Estonia, Sweden, Italy, Spain, and Israel. The various micro-
level studies that are assembled in this special collection do not provide a simple answer to the
question of whether and how economic uncertainty suppresses (or stimulates) fertility. However,
some systematic variation by welfare state regime is discernable. Given the recent economic
volatility in Europe, we expect that labor market uncertainties will remain an important component
of explanations of fertility developments in the 21st century.
Puur, A., Rahnu, L., Maslauskaite, A., Stankuniene, V., & Zakharov, S. (2012).
Transformation of partnership formation in Eastern Europe: The legacy of the past
demographic divide. Journal of Comparative Family Studies, 43(3), 389-417.
https://doi.org/10.3138/jcfs.43.3.389
This article analyses the transformation in the mode of partnership formation in seven countries of
Eastern Europe. The aim of the study is to provide an up-to-date account of the switch from direct
marriage to non-marital cohabitation as it has progressed from the 1960s to the mid-2000s, using
data from the Generations and Gender Surveys. Unlike previous analyses of partnership formation,
we examined the extent to which crossnational variations, in the onset and scale of transformation
characteristic of the Second Demographic Transition (SDT), could be linked to nuptiality regimes
that existed in the region in the 19th and early 20th centuries. With few exceptions, the results
support the notion of correspondence between historical and contemporary patterns. Forerunners in
the transition to partnership formation outside marriage tend to come from areas which exhibited a
late/low prevalence of marriage; the latecomers are typically situated east of the Hajnal line. Thus
our study corroborates earlier findings pertaining to the legacy the historical marriage patterns,
extending them further, from the onset of the first to the second demographic transition. Our results
are also in line with idea of the spatial continuity across successive waves of demographic
innovation demonstrated in several studies for Western Europe. The findings reported in the article
make a similar argument for Eastern Europe. In a broader framework, the results point to diversity
of pathways along which family and fertility characteristic of the SDT have evolved. In view of the
evidence presented in the article, Eastern Europe seems to embody two variants with regard to
synchronism between a shift from direct marriage to non-marital cohabitation and postponement of
childbearing.
2011
Puur, A., & Klesment, M. (2011). Signs of a stable or provisional increase in fertility?
Reflections on developments in Estonia. Demográfia English Edition, 54(5), 31-55.
Link pdf failile
Over the past decade, demographers have observed a recovery of fertility rates in most low and
lowest-low fertility countries, unfortunately interrupted by the economic recession. In this article we
examine trends in fertility in Estonia since the beginning of the 1990s. Estonia merits attention in
the context of Eastern Europe because of its relatively strong recovery of fertility rates during the
2000s. Analysis draws on data from vital and survey statistics and employs descriptive methods. To
estimate the impact of postponement on period fertility rates, the adjustment method developed by
Bongaarts and Feeney is applied. The dynamics of tempo-adjusted measures challenges a popular
view which contrasts low fertility characteristic of the post-socialist period with high fertility
characteristic of the socialist period. In Estonia such a contrast can be observed only in the 1980s
and 1990s when looking at tempo-adjusted fertility measures. With regard to cohort fertility,
women born in 1970 will have an average of just over 1.85 children. In comparative perspective,
strong recuperation of second (and third) births differentiates Estonia from countries exhibiting a
weaker recovery of fertility rates. The authors conclude that the relatively strong recovery of
fertility rates in Estonia in the 2000s is a result of a combination of factors, including family
policies that reduced the opportunity costs of parenthood, economic growth that secured high levels
of employment for the population and plausibly some elements of demographic path dependence.
Altmets, K., Puur, A., Uusküla, A., Saava, A., Sakkeus, L., & Katus, K. (2011). Self-reported
activity limitations among the population aged 20–79 in Estonia: a cross-sectional study.
European journal of public health, 21(1), 49-55.
Link pdf failile
Along with population ageing, limitations in activities of daily living constitute a rising health-
related burden in demographically advanced countries. The present study aims to assess the
prevalence of self-reported activity limitations derived from chronic conditions and social variation
of limitations in the subgroups of the population aged 20–79 years in Estonia. A cross-sectional
study employs data from the second round of the Estonian Family and Fertility Survey, a national
project in the framework of Gender and Generation Programme. The target population covers age
groups of 20–79 years. A nationally representative probability sample was drawn from the 2000
population census. Face-to-face interviews (n = 7855) were conducted in 2004–05. The estimated
prevalence of activity limitations with chronic conditions is 18.5% (95% CI 17.6–19.4) and the
prevalence of severe limitations is 10.6% (95% CI 9.9–11.3) among the population. The logistic
regression model shows significant differences in activity limitations associated with age,
educational attainment and marital status. Judging from our results and the EU structural indicators
on health, the prevalence of activity limitations derived from chronic conditions is comparatively
high in Estonia. The measures to prevent activity limitations and disability should receive a higher
priority in Estonia.
Herlofson, K., & Hagestad, G. O. (2011). Challenges in moving from macro to micro:
Population and family structures in ageing societies. Demographic Research, 25, 337-370.
https://doi.org/10.4054/DemRes.2011.25.10
Assumptions are often made about how population ageing on the macro level has altered
generational structures of families at the micro level. The purpose of this paper is to increase the
awareness of challenges and potential pitfalls in bridging the two levels. To highlight these issues,
two common claims found in the literature are questioned and discussed: that increased life
expectancy leads to more multigenerational family structures and that reduced fertility means fewer
children to care for frail parents. To illustrate, we use population statistics and survey data from
selected countries.
Puur, A., Sakkeus, L., Põldma, A., & Herm, A. (2011). Intergenerational family constellations
in contemporary Europe: Evidence from the Generations and Gender Survey. Demographic
Research, 25, 135-172. https://doi.org/10.4054/DemRes.2011.25.4
Demographic research has drawn attention to the multiple ways in which changes in mortality and
childbearing have produced major shifts in intergenerational family structures. The aim of this
article is to contribute to this body of research by analysing the data from the Generations and
Gender Surveys for nine European countries. In the study, data pertaining to the availability of
ascending (parents and grandparents) and descending (children, grandchildren, and great-
grandchildren) kin of each respondent are combined to shed light on the family structures in which
individuals are embedded at various stages of their lives. The findings provide new insights into the
ways in which various past and present demographic regimes come together to form specific
intergenerational family constellation patterns across Europe. This convergence may yield family
constellations of very similar “heights” in countries with sharply contrasting demographic histories.
The results also indicate that certain demographic scenarios may halt or temporarily reverse the
trend towards the further vertical extension of family constellations.
2010
Klesment, M., & Puur, A. (2010). Effects of education on second births before and after societal transition: Evidence from the Estonian GGS. Demographic Research, 22, 891-932. https://doi.org/10.4054/DemRes.2010.22.28
This article examines the influence of educational attainment and enrolment on second births in Estonia, comparing the patterns before and after the onset of the societal transformation of the 1990s. While many Northern and Western European countries have shown a positive relationship between female education and second births, this pattern has not been found in Central and East European countries. Against that background, Estonia offers an interesting case with noticeably high second birth intensities for highly educated women. In the state socialist period, after controlling for the influence of other characteristics, including the partner’s education, women with tertiary education were found to have higher second birth intensity than women from any lower educational strata. In the postsocialist period, the difference has grown smaller, but women with tertiary education still display a significantly higher transition rate to second birth than their counterparts with secondary education. Following the presentation of empirical findings, the article discusses the mechanisms that could underlie the observed relationship between education and fertility decisions in the changing societal context. The analysis employs microdata from the Estonian Generations and Gender Survey (GGS), conducted in 2004-05.