2020
Tretjakova, V., Gedvilaite-Kordušiene, M., & Rapoliene, G. (2020). Women’s pathways to
childlessness in Lithuania. Link to pdf file
The article explores pathways to childlessness among two generations of women in Lithuania. The
authors employ both quantitative and qualitative research methods. For the quantitative part, in
order to assess the demographic context of childlessness in Lithuania compared to other European
countries the authors analyzed data from Human Fertility Database (HFD) and Generations and
Gender Survey (GGS). The authorsí qualitative analysis is based on semistructured interviews
conducted in Lithuania (n = 44) with childless women aged 28ñ47 (younger generation) and 50ñ71
(older generation) at the time of the survey (2017ñ2018). The authorsí research results show that
compared to other European countries, the level of permanent childlessness in Lithuania seems to
be about average: significantly lower than in some Western, Northern and Southern European
countries, however, higher than in most Eastern and Central European countries. Long-term trends
also indicate increase in permanent childlessness in Lithuania. Analysis of the subjectively
perceived causes of childlessness revealed the different ways the two generations of women
experience childlessness. In the context of circumstantial childlessness, women from the older
generation tend to perceive their ìchildlessî state as something that has been predetermined, decided
by God or fate, whereas, younger women appear to employ a more active approach to their lives in
terms of relationships and family formation. In terms of voluntary childlessness, the differences
among women of the two generations are even more prominent. Older women never openly say that
they have chosen to remain childless, even though they admit never really wanting children. In
contrast, narratives of voluntary childlessness among the younger generation are full of clarity, with
women openly declaring that it was their choice and that they are enjoying it. Lastly, in the case of
involuntary childlessness womenís experiences from both generations seem to converge: they point
to dissatisfaction with the healthcare system in the field of infertility treatment.
Van den Broek, T., & Tosi, M. (2020). The more the merrier? The causal effect of high
fertility on later-life loneliness in Eastern Europe. Social Indicators Research, 149(2), 733-748.
https://doi.org/10.1007/s11205-019-02254-1
Levels of later-life loneliness are high in Eastern Europe. We assess whether having more children
is protective against later-life loneliness for Eastern-European mothers and fathers. Drawing on
Generations and Gender Surveys data of 25,479 parents aged 50–80 from eight Eastern-European
countries, we adopt an instrumental approach exploiting parents’ prefer- ence for mixed-sex
offspring to estimate the causal effect of having additional children on feelings of loneliness. We
find that having an additional child has a causal protective effect against loneliness for mothers.
Ordinary least squares regression models also show a weak but statistically significant negative
association between number of children and later-life loneliness among fathers. However, results of
the instrumental variable analyses are incon- clusive for this group. We thus do not find statistically
significant causal evidence that hav- ing an additional child is protective against loneliness for
fathers. Our results underline the importance of addressing reverse causality and selection bias
when investigating the links between number of children and later-life loneliness, particularly
among women. The causal evidence presented here suggests that the trend towards families with
fewer children noted in several Eastern-European countries may place new cohorts of older Eastern-
Euro- peans, and in particular Eastern-European women, at risk of stronger feelings of loneliness.
Muller, J. S., Hiekel, N., & Liefbroer, A. C. (2020). The long-term costs of family trajectories:
Women’s later-life employment and earnings across Europe. Demography, 57(3), 1007-1034.
https://doi.org/10.1007/s13524-020-00874-8
The “motherhood earnings penalty” is a well-established finding in many Western countries.
However, a divide between mothers and nonmothers might oversimplify reality given that the
family life course has diversified over the last decades. In addition, whether family choices have
consequences for women’s employment and earnings in later life is not well known, particularly in
a comparative perspective. Using data on 50- to 59-year-old women from the Generations and
Gender Programme, the British Household Panel Survey, and SHARELIFE for 22 European
countries, we derive a typology of women’s family trajectories and estimate its association with
women’s later-life employment and earnings. Whereas family trajectory–related differences with
regard to employment were relatively small, our findings reveal a clear, long-lasting family
trajectory gradient in earnings. Childless women (with or without a partner) as well as single
mothers had higher personal earnings than women whose family trajectories combined parenthood
and partnership. Moreover, in societies in which reconciliation of work and family during midlife is
less burdensome, labor market outcomes of women following different family trajectories converge.
Our findings show that women’s fertility and partnership behavior are inevitably interrelated and
jointly influence employment and earning patterns until later in life. The results imply that
promoting equal employment opportunities could have long-lasting effects on women’s economic
independence.
Monkediek, B. (2020). Patterns of spatial proximity and the timing and spacing of bearing
children. Demographic Research, 42, 461-496. https://doi.org/10.4054/DemRes.2020.42.16
People’s demographic decision-making is embedded in regional cultural contexts that include
regional patterns of family organization called family systems. Although previous research has
shown that family systems explain regional variation in fertility, it has focused mainly on historical
or developing societies. Processes of modernization have led to substantial changes in family
structures and values and to an overhaul of the traditional family formation system in most
developed countries. Therefore, questions arise regarding whether family systems also influence
fertility in contemporary developed societies. The paper addresses the research question by
examining the association between regional patterns of spatial proximity between kin and (1) the
age at first birth, (2) the length of the interbirth interval between the first and second child, and (3)
the length of the interbirth interval between the second and third child. In this context, the paper
controls for changes in the associations occurring with age. DATA AND The paper derives regional
indicators of spatial proximity between kin for 54 regions in nine European countries using the first
two waves of the Survey of Health, Ageing and Retirement in Europe (SHARE) (N = 38,484). The
paper studies the association between these regional indicators and fertility using individual-level
data from the Generations and Gender Survey (GGS) (N = 58,689). The analysis relies on a set of
discrete-time hazard models. RESULTS AND The results support the idea that regional patterns of
family organization help to explain fertility in contemporary developed societies. However, the
results are more complex than expected because the association between spatial proximity and
fertility is timevarying. For example, on average, closer proximity to kin increases the likelihood of
having a second child during the first three years after the first child is born. Future research needs
to replicate the results and investigate the underlying mechanisms more closely to better understand
how and when patterns of family organization impact fertility.
Choi, S., Taiji, R., Chen, M., & Monden, C. (2020). Cohort trends in the association between
sibship size and educational attainment in 26 low-fertility countries. Demography, 57(3), 1035-
1062. https://doi.org/10.1007/s13524-020-00885-5
Children with many siblings have lower average educational attainment com- pared with children
raised in smaller families, and this disadvantage by sibship size has been observed across many
countries. We still know remarkably little, however, about how sibship size disadvantage has
changed within countries and how such trends vary across countries. Using comparative data from
111 surveys from 26 low-fertility countries, we find an overall trend of growing sibship size
disadvantage across cohorts in the majority of countries: between the 1931–1940 birth cohort and
the 1971–1980 birth cohort, 16 of 26 countries showed a statistically significant increase in sibship
size disadvantage in edu- cation, while only two countries showed a significant reduction in sibship
size disadvantage. The disadvantage in years of education associated with having an additional
sibling increased remarkably in post-socialist (0.3) and East Asian countries (0.34) and, to a lesser
extent, Western European countries (0.2). In contrast, this disadvantage showed little change in
Nordic countries (0.05) and even decreased in Anglo-Saxon countries (–0.11). We discuss
explanations and implications of our comparative evidence in the context of the intergenerational
transmission of education.
Tanskanen, A. O., Danielsbacka, M., & Rotkirch, A. (2020). Grandparental childcare for
biological, adopted, and step-offspring: findings from cross-national surveys. Evolutionary
Psychology, 18(1). https://doi.org/10.1177/1474704920907894
Based on kin selection theory, amounts of grandparental investment should reflect the probability to
share common genes with offspring. Adoption may represent a special case, however, yet
grandparental investment in adopted children has previously been both theoretically misconstrued
and little investigated. Here, we study for the first time how grandparental childcare provision is
distributed between biological, adopted, and step-offspring. Using Generations and Gender Surveys
(n = 15,168 adult child–grandmother and 12,193 adult child–grandfather dyads) and the Survey of
Health, Ageing, and Retirement in Europe (n = 17,233 grandmother–adult child and 13,000
grandfather–adult child dyads), we find that grandparents were less likely to provide care to
stepchildren than to adopted and biological children, but no difference between adopted and
biological children. These findings were present in both data sets and for both grandmothers and
grandfathers, after several potentially confounding factors were taken into account. The stepchild
disadvantage is in line with kin selection theory. The congruent amounts of care provided to
adopted and biological children may reflect similar levels of adult–child attachment, selection
effects, and greater need in adoptive families, as well as some degree of genetical relatedness in the
case of kin adoption. The study provides new evidence of biased kin investments in contemporary
societies and stresses the importance of psychological motivation and attachment in evolutionary
studies of kin investment.
Hannemann, T., Kulu, H., González‐Ferrer, A., Pailhé, A., Rahnu, L., & Puur, A. (2020).
Partnership dynamics among immigrants and their descendants in four European countries.
Population, Space and Place, 26(5). https://doi.org/10.1002/psp.2315
This study investigates union formation and dissolution among immigrants and their descendants in
four European countries with different migration histories and family patterns (United Kingdom,
France, Spain, and Estonia). Although there is a growing body of literature on migrant families in
Europe, there is still little comparative research on partnership dynamics among immigrants and
their descendants. We apply event history analysis to pooled data from the four countries. The
analysis shows a significant variation in partnership patterns across migrant groups in some
countries (e.g., South Asians vs. Caribbeans in the United Kingdom) and similar partnership
behaviour for some migrant groups in different countries (e.g., South Asians in the United Kingdom
and immigrants from Turkey in France). Descendants of immigrants often exhibit partnership
patterns that are similar to those of their parents' generation. The country context matters; specific
patterns are observed for Spain and Estonia.
Härkönen, J., Billingsley, S., Hornung, M. (2020). Divorce Trends in Seven Countries Over
the Long Transition from State Socialism: 1981–2004. In: Mortelmans, D. (eds) Divorce in
Europe. European Studies of Population, vol 21. Springer, Cham. DOI:10.1007/978-3-030-25838-2_4
The collapse of communism was a defining geopolitical event of late- twentieth century Europe,
with well-documented economic, social, and political implications. Yet there is a striking absence
of research on how it influenced divorce. The objective of this study is to provide an exploratory
analysis of trends in divorce over the long transition from communism—starting from the decline of
the com- munist economy in the 1980s and ending with economic revival—in seven coun- tries:
Bulgaria, Estonia, Hungary, Lithuania, Poland, Romania, and Russia. We discuss how the transition
could be expected to either increase or decrease divorce risks. We analyze retrospective micro-level
data on first marriages from the Changing Life Course Regimes in Eastern Europe (CLiCR) dataset.
Based on our event-history analyses, we find that divorce rates increased in each country at some
stage during the long transition and these increases cannot be explained by compo- sitional change
of the marriages. However, no uniform pattern emerged in the tim- ing and duration of the increase
in divorce risk. This striking variation leads us to conclude that even the effect of major societal
ruptures is contextually contingent.
2019
Sakkeus, L., Abuladze, L., Rahnu, L., & Puur, A. (2019). Non-marital childbearing of migrants and their descendants: Russians in Estonia compared with Russians in Russia and Estonians. Revue d’études comparatives Est-Ouest, (4), 69-113.
https://doi.org/10.3917/receo1.504.0069
Competing hypotheses—modernization and disadvantaged position—have been used to explain the
emergence of alternative family and fertility behaviors.We analyze parity-specific fertility patterns
in marital and non-marital unions, comparing Russian migrants and their descendants in Estonia to
origin populations in Estonia and Russia. Women born in 1924-1986 interviewed in the Generations
and Gender Survey in both countries (2004-2005) are included. Non-marital childbearing is most
common among Estonians, and least among Russians (migrants) in Estonia. The cultural
maintenance and socialization effect is confirmed rather than the disadvantaged position hypothesis
in fertility differentials.
Beaujouan, E., & Berghammer, C. (2019). The gap between lifetime fertility intentions and
completed fertility in Europe and the United States: A cohort approach. Population Research
and Policy Review, 38, 507-535. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11113-019-09516-3
We study the aggregate gap between intended and actual fertility in 19 European countries and the
US based on a cohort approach. This complements prior research that had mainly used a period
approach. We compare the mean intended number of children among young women aged 20 to
24 (born in the early 1970s), measured during the 1990s in the Fertility and Family Surveys, with
data on completed fertility in the same cohorts around age 40. In a similar manner, we compare the
share who state that they do not want a child with actual cohort childlessness. Our exploration is
informed by the cognitive–social model of fertility intentions developed by Bachrach and Morgan
(Popul Dev Rev 39(3):459–485, 2013). In all countries, women eventually had, on average, fewer
children than the earlier expectations in their birth cohort, and more often than intended, they
remained childless. The results reveal distinct regional patterns, which are most apparent for
childlessness. The gap between intended and actual childlessness is widest in the Southern
European and the German-speaking countries and smallest in the Central and Eastern European
countries. Additionally, we analyze the aggregate intentions-fertility gap among women with
different levels of education. The gap is largest among highly educated women in most countries
studied and the educational gradient varies by region, most distinctively for childlessness.
Differences between countries suggest that contextual factors—norms about parenthood,
work–family policies, unemployment—shape women’s fertility goals, total family size, and the gap
between them.
Doepke, M., & Kindermann, F. (2019). Bargaining over babies: Theory, evidence, and policy
implications. American Economic Review, 109(9), 3264-3306.
https://doi.org/10.1257/aer.20160328
It takes a woman and a man to make a baby. This fact suggests that for a birth to take place, the
parents should first agree on wanting a child. Using newly available data on fertility preferences and
outcomes, we show that indeed, babies are likely to arrive only if both parents desire one. In
addition, there are many couples who disagree on having babies, and in low-fertility countries
women are much more likely than men to be opposed to having another child. We account for this
evidence with a quantitative model of household bargaining in which the distribution of the burden
of child care between mothers and fathers is a key determinant of fertility. The model implies that
fertility is highly responsive to targeted policies that lower the child care burden specifically for
mothers.
2018
Mikolai, J., Berrington, A., & Perelli-Harris, B. (2018). The role of education in the
intersection of partnership transitions and motherhood in Europe and the United States.
Demographic Research, 39, 753-794. https://doi.org/10.4054/DemRes.2018.39.27
Previous research has shown that partnership status at first birth is associated with education across
Europe and the United States. Most research has indicated that first births within cohabitation have
a negative educational gradient. However, the pathway to a first birth in different partnership types
can be complex and may vary across countries. We study whether any educational differences
observed at the time of a first birth are produced upon entrance into cohabitation, during the
transition from cohabitation to marriage, or during the transition to first birth. Using data from the
Harmonized Histories we estimate multi-state event history models to examine how educational
differences in patterns of early family formation emerge among women born between 1950 and
1969 in 16 European countries and the United States. The results highlight three main findings.
First, the educational gradient of entry into cohabitation is inconsistent across countries. Second,
regardless of the educational gradient of entry into cohabitation, the transition to a first birth among
cohabiting women has a consistent negative educational gradient across countries. Last, the
transition from cohabitation to marriage has a consistent positive educational gradient across
countries. Across Europe and the United States, educational differences matter the most during the
transition from cohabitation to marriage and the transition to first birth once women are in a
cohabiting union. Entrance into cohabitation is common, but key educational distinctions emerge
upon childbearing. Disadvantaged women are less likely to marry before having a baby, while
highly educated women marry before childbearing.
Mureşan, C. (2018). Mutual influences between motherhood and educational attainment in
selected eastern European countries. Studia Universitatis Babes-Bolyai-Sociologia, 63(1), 73-
97. https://doi.org/10.2478/subbs-2018-0005
Women are spending an ever longer part of their lives enrolled in education programs. A crucial
question in this context is how motherhood can be reconciled and correlated with continued
investment in human capital. A related question concerns the role the socioeconomic context plays
in the education/ family life balance. In the present study we account for the finding that a
pregnancy resulting in a first birth usually triggers the termination of formal education, and,
conversely, that the completion of education is often followed by a first birth. We use a
simultaneous-hazard two-equation model, controlling for common potential but unobserved
determinants. Relative to work already done on these matters, our study extends previous
investigations to Eastern European countries which have not been adequately researched so far. To
strengthen comparison, we have additionally included two Western European countries. This
allowed us to assess the importance of political context. The results show that despite efforts to
offer women the possibility of choosing both motherhood and being enrolled in education, the
educational policies which were introduced in some Eastern European countries after the fall of
communist political regimes could not counteract the negative effects of the transition to a market
economy. In these formerly communist countries, the continuation of studies in parallel with
childbearing and family formation has become more difficult.
Puur, A., Rahnu, L., Sakkeus, L., Klesment, M., & Abuladze, L. (2018). The formation of
ethnically mixed partnerships in Estonia: A stalling trend from a two-sided perspective.
Demographic Research, 38, 1111-1154. https://doi.org/10.4054/DemRes.2018.38.38
Ethnically mixed partnerships are often regarded as the ultimate evidence of the integration of
migrants and their descendants into their host society. A common finding in the literature is an
increase in the occurrence of mixed partnerships across migrant generations. This study investigates
the formation of minority–majority partnerships in Estonia, with special attention to the variation
associated with the migrants’ generation and their exposure to the majority population. The study
uses pooled data from the Estonian Family and Fertility Survey (FFS) and the Estonian Generations
and Gender Survey (GGS), and estimates proportional hazards models. The experience of second-
generation migrants indicates a stalling trend in the incidence of mixed partnerships between the
majority population and migrant groups, which is rooted in contextual features. Apart from
residential proximity, the study shows the salience of early acquisition of the host society language.
Our results for the majority population highlight the role of international migration, which exposes
host populations to mixed partnership formation. The results lend support to the view that the
integration of migrant populations through mixed partnering is a lengthy process that stretches
across several generations. A linguistically divided school system and residential segregation
contribute to the pillarization of society. By focussing on an Eastern European context, the study
contributes to a more comprehensive account of mixed unions in different socioeconomic and
cultural settings. Estonia provides an interesting case as its migrant-origin minorities span several
generations. The study underscores the importance of contextual factors for both the minority and
majority populations.
Puur, A., Vseviov, H., & Abuladze, L. (2018). Fertility intentions and views on gender roles:
Russian women in Estonia from an origin-destination perspective. Comparative Population
Studies, 43, 275-306. https://doi.org/10.12765/CPoS-2019-04
In this article we investigate fertility intentions of Russian women in Estonia from an origin-
destination perspective. Russian migrants to Estonia and their descendants are compared with
women in the sending and host countries in order to identify similarities and differences in intended
transitions to first, second and third births. The study is based on the Estonian and Russian
Generations and Gender Surveys, which were conducted in 2004/2005, and employs logistic
regression models. The dependent variables are intentions to become a mother, to have a second
child, or to have a third child. The hypotheses for the study are mainly derived from the adaptation,
cultural maintenance, and selection (characteristics) perspectives. We also incorporate attitudes
towards gender roles into the models, which have proven to be a salient factor in shaping
childbearing intentions, but have seldom been considered in studies of migrant fertility. Our results
lend support to both the adaptation and cultural maintenance perspectives. In accord with the latter,
the similarity between the childbearing intentions of Russian migrants and their descendants in
Estonia and those of their counterparts in Russia suggests that socialisation to the ethnic subculture
has prevailed over the influence of the host society. We attribute this outcome to contextual features
that have retarded integration processes. By contrast, we observe that proficiency in the host
country language, residence in areas where the host population constitutes a large majority and
having a native partner significantly contribute to the adaptation of migrants’ intentions to have
another child to those of the host population. These results provide support to the adaptation
argument. Finally, our study reveals a positive association between egalitarian views on gender
roles and women’s intentions to have another child. However, variation in gender role attitudes
accounts for a relatively minor part of the difference in intended fertility between the groups
addressed in this study.
Zimmermann, O., & Konietzka, D. (2018). Social disparities in destandardization—Changing
family life course patterns in seven European countries. European Sociological Review, 34(1),
64-78. https://doi.org/10.1093/esr/jcx083
It is generally assumed that life courses in European societies have become less orderly and more
destandardized in recent decades. Focusing on the family sphere, the article examines to what
degree patterns of destandardization are stratified by educational attainment across seven European
countries. Using data from the Generations and Gender Survey (GGS) and the National Educational
Panel Survey (NEPS) (n = 70,228 respondents), the article adds to the methodological discussion of
destandardization by implementing both abstract analyses of life course dissimilarity, which focus
on the ‘timing’ of events; and specific analyses of common episode orders, which relate to the
‘order’ of events. While European countries differ considerably with respect to dominant life course
patterns in early adulthood, a consistent finding is that destandardization is more pronounced among
individuals with lower than with higher levels of education.